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07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - John Lackey returns to Anaheim for the first time since leaving for Boston as a free agent when the Red Sox continue their three-game set against the Angels this evening.
Lackey, who was 49-32 with a 3.72 earned run average in 112 starts over eight seasons with the Angels, allowed one run on two hits against the Angels on May 5 at Fenway Park.
"I had a lot of good years [in Anaheim] and lot of fun here, and I really enjoyed playing here," said Lackey, who signed a five-year, $82.5 million deal with the Red Sox this past offseason. "I won a lot of games in this stadium, so it'll be comfortable once I get out there. I'm not sure whats going to happen. We'll find out."
Lackey has been tremendous in his last two starts but has nothing to show for it, as he has not earned a decision in either outing despite allowing just two earned runs in 15 innings of those outings. Lackey gave up an unearned run and two hits in eight innings to the Seattle Mariners on Thursday, but did not factor in the outcome of his team's 8-6 triumph.
Anaheim, meanwhile, will turn to righty Jered Weaver, who is 9-6 with a 3.22 ERA. Weaver lost for the third time in his last four starts Thursday in Texas, as the Rangers reached him for three runs and seven hits in six innings.
"I was trying to keep us in the game as much as possible," Weaver said. "I wish I could have gotten deeper in the game. Any time you hold that team to three runs in this park [Arlington], you feel like you've done your job."
Weaver is 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA in eight starts against the Red Sox.
The Angels, who lost the opener of this set by a 6-3 score on Monday, hope that things go a little easier for Weaver tonight than it went for Dan Haren in his Anaheim debut on Monday.
Haren (0-1), acquired by Los Angeles on Sunday in a trade with Arizona, exited the game in the fifth inning after taking a Kevin Youkilis line drive off his right forearm. He was diagnosed with a contusion and took the loss, allowing two runs on seven hits to go with eight strikeouts and no walks in 4 2/3 innings.
"It's a little sore and a little tight, but it's not throbbing. It didn't hit the bone," Haren said. "They thought it best to come in and get it checked. The doctor said I should be fine."
David Ortiz homered twice and knocked in three runs to power Boston to the win.
Clay Buchholz (11-6) threw seven innings of one-run ball, yielding just five hits and a walk while fanning seven in his second start since being activated off the disabled list. Jonathan Papelbon nailed down his 23rd save of the season by recording the final four outs.
Victor Martinez (thumb) was in the starting lineup for the first time in a month and drove in a run for Boston, which had lost four of six coming in.
The Angels lost for the fifth time in six games despite home runs by Bobby Abreu and Hideki Matsui.
The Red Sox swept a four-game home set over the Angels from May 3-6, but have lost seven of their last 10 in Anaheim.
<< White Sox put home streak on line against Mariners
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox shoot for their ninth straight home
win this evening, when they continue their four-game series against the
Seattle Mariners at U.S. Cellular Field,
After a 4-6 road trip, Chicago returned to the Wind
<< Reds seek revenge in clash with streaking Brewers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Edinson Volquez aims to start another Cincinnati win streak
when the Reds visit Miller Park tonight for the second test of a four-game
series with the Milwaukee Brewers.
Cincinnati had beaten the Brewers six straight times
<< Cubs' Lilly to make possible showcase start against Astros
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Slumping lefty Ted Lilly faces a team against which he's
had career-long success tonight, when the Chicago Cubs meet the Houston Astros
in the second test of a three-game series at Minute Maid Park.
In Monday's opener, Rya
<< Resurgent Phils to begin home set with Diamondbacks
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies are starting to play like the
team that won back-to-back National League titles. Tonight they shoot for a
sixth straight win when they open a three-game series against the Arizona
Diamondbacks at Cit
Braves get another look at Strasburg >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Nationals' Stephen Strasburg hasn't faced many
hiccups since reaching the majors, but the 22-year-old phenom wasn't at the
top of his game when he first faced the Braves.
Strasburg will look for better results tonigh
Reeling Rockies return home to battle Bucs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The suddenly-skidding Colorado Rockies welcome another
struggling National League team to Coors Field tonight, when they open a
three-game midweek series with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Colorado, which has lost six straight g
Penguins PA announcer Barbero dies >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Penguins' longtime public
address announcer John Barbero passed away Monday evening at the age of 65.
Barbero had been battling a brain tumor since February 2009.
"On behalf of the enti
Isles avoid arbitration with Moulson >>
Uniondale, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Islanders agreed to a one-year
contract with forward Matt Moulson, avoiding an arbitration hearing that was
scheduled for Tuesday.
According to Newsday, the deal is worth $2.45 million.
Mo
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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