Red Sox send Dice-K to hill in finale with Mariners

Baseball Betting Lines

07/25/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -The finale of a four-game series will take place this afternoon at Safeco Field when the Seattle Mariners take on the Boston Red Sox.

Heading to the mound this afternoon for Boston will be Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is looking for his third straight victory. The last time the hard-throwing right-hander was on the rubber he led the Red Sox to a 2-1 victory over Oakland.

In the victory over the Athletics, Matsuzaka surrendered just one run on two hits in 6 2/3 innings of duty. The veteran hurler walked just two batters and struck out six. It was the eighth time in the last nine starts that Matsuzaka allowed no more than three runs in a contest.

In eight starts outside of Fenway Park Matsuzaka has claimed a 4-1 ledger, but he has not been overly impressive, posting just a 4.13 earned run average.

This will be the seventh career start for Matsuzaka against Seattle, and in the previous six outings he has posted a 2-1 record with a 3.99 earned run average.

The Mariners will hand the ball to Doug Fister, who will be looking for his first victory since May 14th when he led Seattle to a win over Tampa Bay. Since then the right-hander has gone 0-5 in his last eight starts and that includes a loss to Chicago in his last outing.

In that matchup against the White Sox, Fister did an admirable job, allowing just three runs in six innings, while collecting six strike outs, but a lack of run support doomed the pitcher.

Fister, who will be facing the Red Sox for the first time in his career, has pitched extremely well at home, but his 2-3 record at Safeco Field does not do his performance justice. In nine starts in front of the home crowd Fister has an impressive 2.51 earned run average, allowing just 19 runs in 64 2/3 innings.

Last night, Michael Saunders homered in the sixth inning after Eric Patterson's missed catch ruined a perfect game bid for Boston starter Jon Lester, and the Mariners went on to take a 5-1 victory over the Red Sox.

Lester (11-5) dominated the Mariners, striking out nine through the first five perfect innings. He showed no signs of slowing down after striking out Josh Bard to begin the sixth, but the game quickly went downhill.

Jack Wilson lofted a ball to shallow center field and Patterson ran to get under it, but the ball bounced off the top of his glove and fell to the ground. Saunders followed by ripping a home run to right.

Lester went on to take the loss, allowing five runs (four earned) on four hits and one walk in 7 2/3 innings. He also struck out a season-high 13.

Saunders finished with two hits for the Mariners, who had lost the first two in this four-game series. Friday's loss was marred by a skirmish in the team's dugout in the fifth inning, as tempers flared after second baseman Chone Figgins was pulled from the game after an apparent lack of effort.

However, Figgins was back in the lineup Saturday and hit an RBI double.

While Lester was dominant early on, Mariners starter David Pauley was effective in 5 2/3 innings. He walked one and allowed five hits, one of which was a fourth-inning home run by David Ortiz.

Chris Seddon (1-0) recorded the final out of the sixth and took the win after Saunders' home run put Seattle on top for good.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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