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07/19/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Imagine the San Diego Padres trying to stay atop the NL West standings without Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Headley and Yorvit Torrealba.
The Los Angeles Dodgers would certainly enjoy seeing that happen, but they're the ones trying to stay healthy for a gigantic stretch run in the second half. The Dodgers, currently 5 1/2 games behind the division-leading Padres, are dealing with injuries to Manny Ramirez, Russell Martin and James Loney.
Ramirez hasn't played since Friday because of a tight calf muscle. That was the last time Martin saw action because of a thumb ailment and Loney recently tweaked a hamstring, forcing manager Joe Torre to make a late scratch before Sunday's 5-4 loss at St. Louis. All three are questionable for Monday's series opener versus rival San Francisco.
The Cardinals completed the four-game sweep of Los Angeles (49-43) with two runs in the bottom of the ninth and erased a 4-0 lead.
"It's tough. Very tough," Torre said on the team's site. "It looked like what should have been a good enough lead, we let get away, and we have nobody to blame but ourselves."
Torre was "celebrating" his 70th birthday and the loss may have added a few years. He is still mum on his future with the club, and has more to worry about with injuries and breakdowns in pitching. It's not as if the Dodgers can go out and make a big trade or sign someone since moving money around is not a subject the franchise wants to discuss at this point. What you see is what you get from this current group of Dodgers, and it's going to be tough making ground in the NL West for the remainder of the season.
PADRES PAINT FUTURE BLACK
It's safe to say San Diego Padres manager Bud Black has performed a mini miracle with the ballclub this season.
Upper management seems to feel the same way and handed him a three-year contract extension through 2013 with club options for 2014 and 2015. Black, whose deal was extended through 2010 with a club option for 2011 last August, has the confidence of his players and general manager Jed Hoyer.
"I am really happy to announce that the Padres have reached an agreement on a well-deserved contract extension for Bud Black," said Hoyer. "This news comes at time when the team is playing well, but my faith in Bud goes far beyond wins and losses. He and his staff are exceptionally well prepared, he embraces the challenge of teaching young players and, most importantly, the players compete for him every night."
During his three-plus seasons at the helm, Black has led San Diego to an overall mark of 281-297.
Many pegged the Padres to finish near the basement in the NL West this season and that they would probably trade All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Instead, San Diego has spent numerous weeks atop the division standings and owns the best record in the National League at 54-37. Atlanta is right behind with a 54-38 ledger.
Gonzalez isn't going anywhere as of now, and the Padres would be foolish to let their best left-handed bat go. The team locked up Black, so why not Gonzalez too?
San Diego has won four straight and will visit the Braves for three games starting with Tuesday's series opener.
GIANTS MUST PLAY BETTER IN NL WEST
With the Los Angeles Dodgers ailing and the Arizona Diamondbacks struggling, the San Francisco Giants' upcoming schedule should get a bit easier.
The Giants (50-42) will open a seven-game road trip in Hollywood and Arizona tonight, but have the worst division mark in the NL West. At 9-20 in division play, it's no wonder the Giants are 4 1/3 games out first place.
On a sour note, San Francisco has won only three of 14 road games against teams from the NL West this season.
"I think as much as anything it's the focus these guys came in with, knowing this is part of the schedule and how important it is to play on the road, especially when you have a long stretch, and that can determine your season," noted Giants manager Bruce Bochy. "That's how you have to look at it, how important it is, and come out every day and be ready to go."
On a more uplifting note, the Giants have won nine of their last 11 games and almost completed a rare four-game sweep of the visiting New York Mets before the bullpen imploded Sunday afternoon. Bochy has a strong trio of pitchers for the upcoming set with LA, as young prospect Madison Bumgarner, two-time NL Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum and 2002 AL Cy Young honoree Barry Zito are scheduled to pitch in Hollywood.
HIT STREAKS END FOR COLORADO'S GONZALEZ, HERRERA
Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and infielder Jonathan Herrera both had lengthy hitting streaks come to an end in Sunday's win at Cincinnati.
They are probably more relieved that the ballclub was able to halt a three- game losing streak despite combining to go 0-for-8 in the 1-0 win.
Herrera was riding a 13-game hitting streak and batted .396 with seven runs and seven RBI before an 0-for-4 showing yesterday. He had a 10-game streak going earlier this season and the longest streak by a Rockie this season was Clint Barmes' 14-game run from the end of June to the beginning of July.
Gonzalez had a hit in 10 consecutive contests before his 0-for-4 performance on Sunday. He hit .442 with 13 runs bated in over the stretch.
In other team news, All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is expected to join the team in south Florida this week. The injured infielder, who is hampered by a broken left wrist, could begin a Minor League rehab assignment in the next few days. First baseman Todd Helton is still on the disabled list with a back problem, but has been taking swings in the batting cage.
The Rockies (50-41) are four games off the NL West lead and have won seven of their last 10 games. They are 1-2 on an 11-game trek through Cincinnati, Florida and Philadelphia.
IF ONLY VASQUEZ COULD START FOR D'BACKS
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been through turmoil this season.
A lack of hits in the clutch and poor pitching has led the Diamondbacks to an abysmal 34-58 record this season, a manager change and a new GM. Arizona has the worst overall earned run average this season at 5.40, while its relievers own an MLB-low 6.78 ERA.
Relief pitcher Esmerling Vasquez has been able to put all of that aside and has worked 8 1/3 straight scoreless innings. Interim manager Kirk Gibson could use just about anything right now on the mound. Heck, he could test and see if the batboy has a good arm.
But it's been nice for Vasquez and his scoreless streak because there hasn't been much to talk about in the desert these days.
Arizona may even make some moves at the upcoming trade deadline, but don't expect them to break the bank or dump salary for the fun of it. Perhaps starting pitcher Dan Haren will be on the trade block or some other veteran who could bring in a package of prospects.
"I don't think anybody is really in a deal-making mode yet. We've been very open in discussing with teams what we'd be interested in doing," D'Backs GM Jerry Dipoto said on the team's site.
The Diamondbacks have lost four in a row and are last in the NL West standings, 20 1/2 games behind frontrunning San Diego. Meanwhile, infielder Kelly Johnson has ripped off four straight multi-hit games and has hit safely in 12 of his last 14 games, recording two triples, two homers and 10 RBI.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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