Road-weary Sabres make a stop in Tampa

Hockey Betting Lines

03/18/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - An inability to win on the road has plagued the Buffalo Sabres as of late. The Northeast Division leaders will attempt to reverse that negative trend when the team visits a venue it's had great success in during recent years for tonight's clash with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Buffalo enters the St. Pete Times Forum having lost 10 of its last 11 road tilts (1-7-3) and has dropped the first two tests of a current five-game trek. The Sabres had a string of eight consecutive defeats away from home -- a skid which matched the longest in franchise history -- snapped with a 2-1 overtime win over the New York Rangers on March 7.

After starting this road trip with an overtime setback to Detroit on Saturday, Buffalo came out on the short end of a 4-3 decision Tuesday in Atlanta. The loss was the third straight overall for the Sabres, who are just 6-11-4 since January 19.

The Sabres fell behind by a 3-1 score after one period against the Thrashers, but drew even on goals from Matt Ellis and Tim Kennedy before Atlanta's Jim Slater netted the game-winner with 6:44 left to play. Kennedy was credited with an assist on Ellis' tally.

Buffalo did receive a subpar performance from goaltender Ryan Miller, with the U.S. Olympian stopping just 2-of-5 shots before being removed just 5:20 into the contest. Patrick Lalime saved 20-of-21 chances in relief.

"I worried about him a little bit, three goals in five opportunities is not what you want to see," Sabres head coach Lundy Ruff said about Miller. "It's never an easy decision, you just take the emotion out of it and do it and hope it works out."

Despite its tailspin over the past two months, Buffalo still resides atop the Northeast standings and owns a three-point edge on second-place Ottawa. The Senators have struggled down the stretch as well, going 1-5-1 since returning from the Olympic break.

A trip to Tampa may help the Sabres get back on track. Buffalo has prevailed in eight of its last nine visits to the St. Pete Times Forum and is 15-3-0 over its last 18 overall matchups with the Lightning.

Buffalo has won both 2009-10 meetings between the teams, including a 3-2 shootout verdict in Tampa back on October 24.

The Lightning find themselves in a rut at the moment as well, having lost nine of their past 11 outings. Tampa Bay began an important four-game homestand with a tough 2-1 defeat to defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh on Sunday, then fell to red-hot Phoenix by the same score two nights later.

The Coyotes scored a pair of first-period goals and received another stellar performance out of Ilya Bryzgalov in Tuesday's triumph, with the Russian netminder turning aside 27 of the 28 shots he faced.

"I don't think we got enough traffic in front of (Bryzgalov)," said the Lightning's Brandon Bochenski. "You can see we weren't getting second chances. We weren't getting pucks through to the net, and we weren't getting enough second chances."

Tampa Bay played its fourth straight game without one of its top scorers in Ryan Malone, and the physical forward is expected to miss up to an additional two weeks after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his left knee on Tuesday. The 30-year-old ranks third among Lightning players with 21 goals this season.

The Lightning enter tonight's play in 11th place in the East and six points back of Boston for the conference's eighth and final playoff seed.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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