Kvapil finishes strong for win in Nashville

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/12/2007 - Lebanon, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Skinner led the first 102 laps, but Travis Kvapil finished with a rush to capture Saturday night's Toyota Tundra 200 Craftsman Truck Series race at the Nashville Superspeedway. The No.6 Roush Racing driver crossed the finish line more than one second ahead of Ron Hornaday Jr.

The victory was Kvapil's third of the season and eighth of his truck career.

Skinner brought the field to the green flag for 150 laps of truck racing. Skinner set a fast early pace and only Todd Bodine and Jack Sprague were within five seconds of the leader after just 20 laps.

Skinner had still been the race's only leader as the field crossed the 40-lap mark. He had lapped up to the 26th truck and held a five-second lead. But a caution flag quickly erased the lead on lap 42.

Everyone pitted and Skinner, who made no chassis changes, was first off pit road and ready to rebuild his lead.

The green flag dropped and off went Skinner. Meanwhile, Erik Darnell, who restarted in sixth, immediately dropped out of the top-20 with a severe handling problem, likely a tire going flat. Another caution flag slowed the field, but helped Darnell, who quickly came to pit lane for a new set of tires.

The race got back underway and again Skinner took off. One driver that was making progress in the chase of Skinner was Ron Hornaday Jr. who started 14th, but cracked the top-five by lap 60. And it was Hornaday Jr. who was second in the championship to Skinner and couldn't afford to let him runaway and hide from the field.

Skinner was still putting up a fast numbers, but Musgrave was staying with him this time, as the field passed the halfway point of the race. Musgrave was trying different lines and found one that he could keep up with Skinner, though passing didn't seem in the cards.

It was still a "two-horse race" after 100 laps as both Skinner and Musgrave built a one-second lead on Kvapil and Johnny Benson. Bodine and Hornaday Jr. were stuck in fifth and sixth, respectively but were not making any moves towards the leaders.

A caution flag just after halfway sent everyone down pit lane. Suddenly, Kvapil's truck came to life and within a couple of laps he not only caught Skinner, but made the pass for the lead.

"We made the right adjustments...and we saved our best tires for last," said Kvapil.

On lap 110 Benson blew a right-front tire and he slapped the outside wall to bring out a caution flag. Kvapil was first off pit lane with Hornaday Jr. in second and Skinner in third.

Kvapil stretched the lead to more than one second as the field hit the 115-lap mark, 35 laps to go. They were still one-two-three with 20 laps to go. Kvapil held 1.528 seconds on Hornaday Jr. and more than two seconds on Skinner as the laps dwindled to just 15.

Kvapil was still pounding out the quick laps and the gap between first and second was two seconds with 10 laps to go. Kvapil cruised to the checkered flag.

Skinner finished third and will bring an 82-point lead to the next event.

The next race in the series is set for Wednesday, August 22nd at the Bristol Motor Speedway.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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