Big South teams embrace playoff bid

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Almost everywhere you look, Liberty is considered the prohibitive favorite to win the Big South football title this fall.

The rest of the conference, however, has motivation that goes way beyond feeling overlooked by the voters.

The chance to go to the FCS playoffs is all the buzz among Big South teams. The conference champion will gain an automatic bid for the first time when the playoffs expand from 16 to 20 teams in late November.

The Northeast Conference champion will also advance to the playoffs with a new automatic bid, and two more at-large selections will fill the other two spots.

Big South head coaches and selected media installed Liberty as their preseason favorite for the fourth straight year in a poll released at their kickoff luncheon today in Charlotte, N.C. Liberty gained 11 of 13 first-place votes. Stony Brook, which beat Liberty and tied the Flames for the title last season - though both teams stayed home during the playoffs - was selected second, followed by Coastal Carolina, Charleston Southern, Gardner-Webb, VMI and Presbyterian.

"The automatic bid puts our program and our conference on the same playing field as the rest of the Top 25 FCS programs in the country," Liberty coach Danny Rocco said. "We've strived each year to be Big South Conference champions, but we also want to be a program of national prominence and in order to do that you have to play at the national level. We've just missed out during the last few years, but this year we know our goal is attainable if we just take care of business in our own league."

There's good reason for the Flames to believe they will win the Big South's first automatic bid to the playoffs. The Flames have gone 26-8 overall and 14-1 in the conference over the last three seasons, though they haven't received an at-large bid.

They were 8-3 overall and 5-1 in the conference last season, and return 14 starters and 43 lettermen from a squad that led the FCS in scoring offense (36.4 ppg) a year ago.

Mike Brown is the Big South's preseason offensive player of the year, ready to take over the quarterback duties full-time after starring as a wide receiver and part-time signal-caller last season. Brown and fellow returnees Aldreakis Allen and Sir Chauncey Holloway rushed for a combined 25 touchdowns, and the Flames add Massachusetts running back Corey Davis to the backfield. Brown also has a go-to target in Chris Summers, who caught 46 passes and is part of a dynamite group of wide receivers across the conference.

"The key to winning the Big South title, as in most leagues, is depth at key positions and experience," Rocco said. "We had a younger team last year that was able to carry on a now growing tradition here at Liberty and I'm excited to see what they can do this year. Most of our skill-position players are back this year and we are coming off the best spring workouts I've experienced since I've been at Liberty."

Liberty and Gardner-Webb tied for the conference high with eight selections on the preseason squad. Gardner-Webb will be a physical team with the likes of offensive guard Corey O'Daniel and linebackers Marty Patterson and Jeffery Williams, who is coming off an injury-plagued season.

The biggest title challengers to Liberty figure to be Stony Brook, which returns junior quarterback Michael Coulter and junior running back Edwin Gowins, and adds a bunch of influential transfers; Coastal Carolina, which has an key transfer as well in quarterback Aramis Hillary, formerly of the University of South Carolina; and Charleston Southern, which has a superb wide receiver and return specialist in Gerald Stevenson, but also has to improve defensively.

BIG SOUTH PRESEASON POLL (Head Coaches and Selected Media)

1. Liberty (11 first-place votes), 103 points;

2. Stony Brook (1), 81;

3. Coastal Carolina, 68;

4. Charleston Southern (1), 65;

5. Gardner-Webb, 54;

6. VMI, 31;

7. Presbyterian, 18

PRESEASON BIG SOUTH ALL-CONFERENCE TEAM

Offensive Player of the Year - Mike Brown, QB, Liberty

Defensive Player of the Year - Marty Patterson, LB, Gardner-Webb

Offense

QB- Mike Brown, Liberty. RB- Edwin Gowins, Stony Brook; Patrick Hall, Gardner- Webb. WR- Gerald Stevenson, Charleston Southern; James Perry III, Gardner- Webb; Chris Summers, Liberty. TE- David Duran, Coastal Carolina. OL- Corey O'Daniel, Gardner-Webb; Paul Fenaroli, Stony Brook; Alex Stadler, Liberty; Jordan Lancaster, Charleston Southern; Jamie Dunaway, Gardner-Webb.

Defense

DL- Joel Walton, Charleston Southern; Asa Chapman, Liberty; Josh Wine, VMI; Quinton Davis, Coastal Carolina. LB- Marty Patterson, Gardner-Webb; Jeffery Williams, Gardner-Webb; Doncel Bolt, Liberty; Emilio Calvin, VMI. DB- Josh Norman, Coastal Carolina; Cedric McGowan, Gardner-Webb; Brent Vinson, Liberty; KaJuan Lee (tie), Liberty; Chris Kuzdale (tie), Charleston Southern.

Specialists

PK- Matt Bevins, Liberty. P- Marc Ray, VMI. LS- Daniel Bonifas, Coastal Carolina. KR- Tyson Petty, Gardner-Webb. PR- Gerald Stevenson, Charleston Southern.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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