Astros vie to end season-long struggles vs. Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

08/11/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Milwaukee Brewers may be struggling at the moment, but they've had little trouble when facing the Houston Astros this season. The current National League Central leaders aim for a fifth consecutive victory over their division rivals when the teams clash again tonight at Minute Maid Park.

Milwaukee has now taken eight of 10 meetings with the Astros in 2007 following Friday's extra-inning decision in the opener of this three-game series. Corey Hart tripled home Rickie Weeks with two outs in the top of the 11th to give the Brewers a much-needed 5-4 victory.

Weeks worked a two-out walk off Brian Moehler (1-4) before Hart laced a pitch into the right-field corner to put Milwaukee in front. Francisco Cordero then came on to strike out the side in the bottom half of the frame to earn his 35th save.

The Brewers snapped a four-game losing streak and remained a half-game in front of Chicago, which defeated Colorado on Friday, for first place in the division.

Prince Fielder hit his NL-leading 35th homer and J.J. Hardy also went deep for Milwaukee, which also received a two-run double from Bill Hall.

Luke Scott was 2-for-4 with a three-run homer for the Astros, who had a three- game win streak halted. Starting pitcher Jason Jennings surrendered four runs on just three hits -- two of which were homers -- in 5 1/3 innings of work.

Although Milwaukee has enjoyed great success in the season series, the Brewers figure to be tested tonight by Houston hurler Wandy Rodriguez, who's been tremendous on the Minute Maid Park mound this season.

Rodriguez has surrendered a mere three runs in 38 2/3 innings over his last five home starts and the Astros have emerged victorious in each of those contests. The left-hander owns an impressive 6-2 record with a 1.69 earned run average in 11 overall outings at Minute Maid Park in 1007.

He did have a four-start home win streak snapped on Monday, although Rodriguez put together another stellar performance. He limited the Cubs to one run and four hits while recording a career-best nine strikeouts over eight innings, but left with the game tied at 1-1.

Rodriguez has not fared well in two previous starts versus Milwaukee this season, both of which came on the road. The 28-year-old lost both games and surrendered a total of 12 runs in 11 innings of work.

For his career Rodriguez is 2-4 with a 5.60 ERA in nine appearances (eight starts) against the Brewers.

Jeff Suppan attempts to build off two very good outings when he takes the mound tonight for Milwaukee. The veteran righty held Philadelphia to one run and five hits over 5 2/3 innings last Sunday, but was denied a victory when the Phillies rallied for five ninth-inning runs against the Brewer bullpen.

Prior to that start, Suppan allowed two runs and six hits over 6 1/3 frames in a no decision against the Mets on July 31.

Suppan is just 2-6 with a 4.71 ERA in 12 lifetime games (11 starts) against Houston and hasn't fared real well on the road this year. He brings a 3-7 record with a 5.80 ERA in 12 away starts into this evening's tilt.

The Brewers have struggled away from home as a team as well. Milwaukee has lost 14 of its last 18 on the road and is just 22-35 as the visitor this season.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.