Angels hope to get second half off to good start vs. Mariners

Baseball Betting Lines

07/15/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - No team was happier to see the All-Star break than the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Hopefully recharged, the Angels get their second half started with the opener of a four-game set with the Seattle Mariners at Angel Stadium.

The Angels headed into the break with losses in eight of their final 10 games. However, despite their struggles and injury problems, the Angels are only 4 1/2 games off the pace of the American League West-leading Texas Rangers.

Of course the Angels' hopes took a hit with the season-ending leg injury to first baseman Kendry Morales. Outfielder Torii Hunter, though, has picked up the slack in Morales' absence, belting 15 home runs and 62 RBI. However, he struggled heading into the break, managing just one hit over his final 10 at- bats.

"We know that one person is not going to fill Kendry Morales' shoes and what he brings to the team," Angels manager Mike Scioscia said. "He's the one hitter in the middle of our lineup that really makes everyone around him better. I think that speaks volume to his talents. That being said, I think that our offensive lineup -- if people can play to their capabilities -- will be deep enough for us to absorb a lot of that and to give ourselves an opportunity to score runs and support what we think is a good pitching staff."

Tonight the Angels turn to right-hander Joel Pineiro, who has gone at least six innings in each of his last nine starts and has a 6-1 record during that span. Pineiro did not get a decision in his last start before the break on Friday in Oakland, as he allowed three runs and eight hits in seven innings of his team's 6-5 win.

Pineiro, who pitched the first seven years of his career in Seattle, beat the Mariners back on June 6 and is 1-1 with a 5.87 ERA in three games (one start) against them.

Seattle, meanwhile, was perhaps the American League's most disappointing team in the first half. With Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez at the top of the rotation, most people had the Mariners finishing first in the AL West. However, Lee missed the first month of the season with an abdominal injury and Seattle struggled offensively, putting itself in a hole that led to the trade of Lee to Texas right before the break.

At 35-53, the Mariners occupy last place in the West, 15 games back of the Rangers. Seattle headed into the break having lost nine of its last 11 games.

"Obviously there have been some challenges and disappointments," Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu said. "As we go forward, we feel like we need to get over some hurdles offensively."

Seattle will hand the ball tonight to righty Doug FIster, who is 3-4 with a 3.09 ERA. Fister did not get a decision the last time he pitched back on July 7 against Kansas City, but gave up just one run and six hits in six innings of his team's 7-3 loss.

Fister is 1-0 in two starts against the Angels with a 2.51 ERA.

The Angels are 7-2 against Seattle this season and have not lost a season series against the Mariners since 2003.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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