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02/23/2012 - Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 14th-ranked Murray State Racers will try to avenge their only loss of the season as they head to the Gentry Center to battle the Tennessee State Tigers in a premiere Ohio Valley Conference matchup.
TSU and Murray State will be meeting for the 63rd time in history. The Tigers ended the Racers' dreams of a perfect season in first bout this season, as they beat Murray State 72-68 at the CFSB Center. TSU will be attempting to sweep Murray State for the first time since the 1992-1993 season tonight.
Head coach Steve Prohm has led his Racers to three straight wins since the loss to TSU, the most recent of which was an impressive 65-51 victory over Saint Mary's in this past weekend's BracketBusters. Murray State was on fire in the contest as it hit 58.1 percent of its field goals including 9-of-17 from three-point range to down the Gaels. The Racers have already clinched the OVC Title for the third straight year. Murray State's incredible 23-0 start made it the last undefeated team in the NCAA's Division I. Prohm can still be the first coach in MSU's 87-year history to lead his team to a perfect road record.
Isaiah Canaan has had a remarkable year leading Murray State. Canaan is second in the OVC in scoring with an average of 19.3 ppg and has been named one of 11 finalists for the Bob Cousy Award, which goes to the nation's top point guard. Donte Poole and Ivan Aska have been vital members of the supporting cast for Canaan along the way. Poole is second on the squad with 14.0 ppg, while Aska is averaging 11.6 points and a team-high 5.9 boards per contest.
Although the Racers are one of the nation's hottest teams, the Tigers are even hotter as they have won their last nine games. TSU improved to 19-10 overall on Saturday in the BracketBusters event by topping Miami-Ohio, 68-61, to keep its streak alive. TSU has not won 20 games in a season since its 1978-1979 campaign. Head coach John Cooper will need his team to get off to a stronger start in this one, as it has had to claw back from second half double-digit deficits in three of its last four games. The Tigers are locked into the No. 2 seed in the upcoming conference tournament and would have to run the table to make it to the Big Dance regardless of the outcome of this one.
Robert Covington will once again try to lead the Tigers past MSU tonight. Covington finished with team highs of 17 points and eight rebounds in the first bout with the Racers. The junior forward is fourth in the OVC in scoring (17.9 ppg) and second in rebounding (7.9 rpg). Patrick Miller is a solid point guard for TSU, while Jordan Cyphers, Kellen Thornton, Wil Peters, and Kenny Moore provide scoring depth.
<< Hawkeyes and Badgers meet in Big Ten battle
Iowa City, IA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 16th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers will look
to ground the Iowa Hawkeyes as they visit Carver-Hawkeye Arena for Big Ten
Conference action.
This will be the second encounter of this season and 155th in history
<< Top-25 showdown on tap in Tallahassee
Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first place picture in the Atlantic
Coast Conference will get a little clearer tonight as the fifth-ranked Duke
Blue Devils head to the Donald L. Tucker Center to square off with the 15th-
ranked Florida S
<< Sizzling Thunder welcome Lakers to OKC
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Basketball fans will receive a nice treat before the NBA
All-Star break with tonight's matchup between two of the league's best, as the
Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder play host to Kobe Bryant and
the Los
<< Spurs close out Rodeo Road Trip in Denver
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Minnesota Vikings Hall of Fame defensive tackle John Randle
said it felt like the team hit every green light during the 1998 season until
getting sideswiped in the NFC Championship game against the Atlanta Falcons.
The S
Golf Tidbits: Haas becoming Captain Clutch >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bill Haas showed off his short game at the
Tour Championship last fall, and he put on another display last weekend.
Haas doesn't get nearly the credit that others do, but if I needed someone to
get up and
Klinsmann names U.S. roster for friendly at Italy >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - U.S. national team coach Jurgen Klinsmann named
a roster of mostly European-based players Thursday for friendly at Italy later
this month.
Of the 21 players, 16 are playing in Europe. Although Klinsmann called
England names roster for Netherlands friendly >>
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - England interim manager Stuart Pearce named
a 25-man roster Thursday for an upcoming friendly against the Netherlands, and
Fraizer Campbell and Tom Cleverley were both handed their first call-ups.
Pearce al
Saha named to French squad for Germany friendly >>
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - France boss Laurent Blanc included Louis Saha
on the squad Thursday for a friendly against Germany, giving the Tottenham man
a chance to revive his international career.
The 33-year-old Saha made his internat
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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